AMP Government has Failed: Carrascalao

Jornal Independente

29.05.2012


By: Agus dos Santos

DILI: The governance of the Parliamentary Majority Alliance (AMP) during the past five years has been unsuccessful because there has not been significant development, an MP from within the alliance said.

PSD MP Mario Carrascalao made the comments as AMP’s mandate nears its end.

Since it came to power in 2007, the AMP government has taken more than $3 billion from the Petroleum Fund for national development.

Mr Carrascalao said this money had not benefitted the people.

The Ministry of Infrastructure had not achieved good results, because most of the nation’s roads and bridges were in poor condition, even though the budget for infrastructure had increased each year, the PSD MP said.

There was a lack of quality in education because students faced various difficulties, ranging from poor infrastructure to issues with school materials, he said.

“These are facts. Also, in the health (sector), many people are frequently concerned that there is no medicine and there are insufficient places (for treatment),” the former prime minister said.

Under Portuguese rule, Timor-Leste exported rice overseas, but 10 years after the restoration of independence, the country continues to import rice, even though the Ministry of Agriculture has bought various equipment for rice production, including tractors, he said.

“(There have been failures in) almost all ministries. In electricity, although there are many generators, the power continues to go on and off. (In the Ministry of Social Solidarity) MSS, veterans and the elderly continue to have concerns, although there have been some successes.”

The facts show there has not been development that is significant for the people, although the government has often used the name of the people, Mr Carrascalao said.

“I myself am from PSD, which signed the AMP alliance. I say AMP has not been a success. This is the reality – in (parts of) Dili there is no clean water, neighbourhoods don’t have (proper) roads. This says AMP has failed.”

During AMP’s governance, Mr Carrascalao said, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao had used his influence to resolve problems such as those associated with displaced people and petitioners.

“This is because Xanana himself used his influence, not AMP.”

Recently, Prime Minister Gusmao said that during its five years in office AMP had delivered some development to the people, along with the stability necessary for the national development process.

The government had begun to resolve many problems, but more still needed to be done, he said.

…………

Coalitions and Alliances

Damien Kingsbury


As Timor-Leste heads towards it parliamentary elections, it is increasingly likely that no single party will receive sufficient votes to hold an absolute majority in parliament in its own right. Despite claims by some parties’ leaders about the extent of their impending victory, none is likely in the manner in which it is being touted. As a result, the next government can be expected to be formed through an alliance or coalition of parties.

While the terminology is not the determining factor, within Timor-Leste, it is commonly assumed that a ‘coalition’ is a political agreement reached between two or more parties prior to an election. An ‘alliance’, on the other hand, is understood to be where two or more parties enter into a partnership following an election. 
The term ‘alliance’ has particular resonance within Timor-Leste, reflecting Article 106.1 of the Constitution, which specifies that the President must appoint as the Prime Minister either the head of the party that receives the most votes or the head of an alliance of parties that are able to form a majority in parliament. 

The idea of a coalition has the immediate appeal of showing voters what sort of political deals their preferred party will make prior to them voting. There is a transparency in this that is not available to post-election deal-making that can form alliances. Coalitions also come to act more like a single party, if with internal factions, which is how most political parties operate in any case.

The advantage of a coalition, tending towards being a larger single party, is that it creates a more stable political environment through consistency of ideological alignment and by helping to consolidate voting around larger blocs rather than a less coherent fracturing of smaller parties. More and smaller parties may represent specific political interests more accurately. But they also tend to become compromised by having to do deals with other parties in order to achieve a degree of political power.   

It is also a truism in democratic politics that while a two-party political system can narrow potential political options, it tends to offer voters a fairly clear either/or voting proposition, which in turn implies greater political stability. One need only look at the outcome of the 2012 elections in Greece to see the type of political impasse that can arise when there are a number of smaller parties that are deeply divided over key political issues. 

It is such chaotic political circumstances in the past that have led, in Weimar Germany in the 1930s, to an increase in presidential control over the political process, ending up with the suspension of civil liberties and the ascension of a dictator. Similarly, as a consequence of political incoherence in France in the 1950s, it changed its constitution to increase the powers of the president from being largely ceremonial to making the system semi-presidential, with extensive presidential powers for the first years of the transition. 

It is unlikely that Timor-Leste will fall into political chaos as a result of its numerous small parties, primarily because it is not facing a major crisis over which the parties do not agree. But the potential for political chaos does remain larger rather than smaller while numerous parties exist.

The reason for Timor-Leste’s numerous small parties is its proportional representation political system. This ensures that voters do not feel disenfranchised by being forced to vote for one of a smaller number of larger parties they might not feel political sympathy for. But this system does encourage the existence of more and necessarily smaller parties than is otherwise politically ideal.

The main driver for maintaining a proportional representation system is to ensure that local political control does not consolidate in the hands of local power holders, as is possible under a direct representation system. But the leaders of the smaller parties also have a much greater chance of being elected under a proportional model. This self-interest is also the main driver behind party leaders not wanting to enter into coalitions ahead of elections.

Party leaders believe that if they commit prior to an election, their supporters may come to believe they are not voting for their favourite party but, in effect, from the major party in the coalition. There is an element of accuracy to this assumption. 

As part of a pre-arranged coalition, the party leaders would also lose their capacity to bargain for ministerial positions and other influence following an election. So they tend to want to wait and then, they hope, capitalise on their vote.

However, being in a coalition means that the bargaining for post-election position takes place not on the basis of votes, but on the basis of agreement. In 2007, based on the first round presidential election results, the Democratic Party, for example, looked as though it would have a strong bargaining position after the parliamentary elections. However, its vote significantly declined in the parliamentary elections, along with some of its bargaining power. 

The real question in 2012 will be, however, not how well presidential representatives did in the first round of voting, but what deals can be offered by the larger parties as they try to bring together a majority of seats in the new parliament. The two, or possibly three, main parties will each have their own agenda which, depending on the final alignment of parties in parliament, will produce very different political outcomes for Timor-Leste.

It may be, as some observers, think, that there will be few surprises arising from the parliamentary elections and that the shape of the next government is relatively predictable. However, numerous smaller parties and the potential for opportunism, shifting loyalties and political revenge, Timor-Leste’s political process may yet throw up a surprise outcome.

Professor Damien Kingsbury
Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights
Faculty of Arts and Education
Deakin University, Melbourne
+61(0)439638834

GOPAC urges investigation of CNRT Fundraising

GOPAC   (Global Organization of Parliamentarians Against Corruption) TIMOR-LESTERua De Nu Laran-20 Bairro dos Grillos-Dili
Telephone: (670) 331-3457 ext: 107 (Hugo Fernandes) 

        

PRESS RELEASE

The Global Organisation of Parliamentarians against Corruption (GOPAC) in Timor-Leste has called for an urgent investigation into reports that CNRT, the political party headed by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, has recently raised at least $2.65 million in political donations – much of it in apparent violation of Timorese law.Newspaper reports this week have detailed a long list companies and individuals which reportedly pledged donations at a fund raising event hosted by Mr Gusmão. The biggest donations are said to have been made by companies that have in recent years won major government construction contracts. These companies include Jonize (which reportedly donated $250,000 donation), BTK ($250,000), Marabian ($250,000), Tinolina ($200,000) and Montana Diak ($200,000). Donations are reported to have also been received from a number of foreign companies, including $200,000 from Puri Akraya Engineering, an Indonesian company that in 2010 won a $406 million contract to build the Hera power plant – the biggest contract in Timor-Leste’s history. If the reports are correct, these donations would appear to be illegal:

• Political parties are prohibited from receiving donations from companies: Article 22(a) of Law 03/2004 on Political Parties; and Article 4 of the Legal regime for the Financing of Political Parties, 6/2008.
• Political parties are prohibited from receiving donations from foreign companies or individuals: Article 22(g) of Law 03/2004 on Political Parties; and Article 4 of the Legal Regime for the Financing of Political Parties, 6/2008.
• While donations from “national individuals” are permitted, contributions exceeding $1000 must be certified by bank cheque – to ensure the contribution is from an individual, not a company: Article 9 of the Legal regime for the Financing of Political Parties, 6/2008.
• Leaders of political parties, individuals or managers of corporations who breach these rules face a penalty of six months to two years imprisonment or a fine of $500 to $5000: Article 23 of the Legal regime for the Financing of Political Parties, 6/2008.
• In addition, Timor-Leste has ratified the United Nations Convention against Corruption, which requires countries to take steps to enhance transparency of political party funding and to prevent conflicts of interest. Article 9 of the Constitution makes such treaties part of Timorese law.

GOPAC has today requested these reported donations be investigated by the Anti-Corruption Commission (CAC), Prosecutor-General (PG) and the National Election Commission (CNE). CAC or the PG should also make an application to the court to freeze CNRT’s bank accounts while the investigation takes place.“These reported donations appear to be a clear breach of laws that the current government introduced to prevent corruption,” said GOPAC chair Fernanda Borges. “Unlawful donations to political parties pose a serious threat to the democracy we have fought so hard to protect. As we prepare to celebrate 10 years as an independent nation, it is crucial that the law is upheld and that these claims are investigated.” Fernanda Borges (Tel: +670 733 0744)                                                   Thursday 17 May 2012Chair, GOPAC Timor LesteParliamentary Leader, Partido Unidade Nacional

Fledgling Timor Air stops Darwin to Dili flights

By Katrina Bolton

Posted May 10, 2012 12:28:29

PHOTO: The then East Timorese president, Jose Ramos Horta, was on the first Air Timor flight between Darwin and Dili last year. (John Waddell: Audience submitted)

MAP: East Timor

An East Timorese refugee's dream of a national airline is over, less than a year after the first plane took to the skies.

Timor Air launched last July with high hopes but has now ceased flights.

The then Timorese president, Jose Ramos Horta, was on the first flight between Darwin and Dili.

He said he hoped the airline would see more visitors between Australia and East Timor, if the price and service were right.

But less than 12 months later, Timor Air has stopped flights and is no longer selling tickets, saying it did not have enough passengers.

The airline was the dream of Jeremias Desousa, a Timorese refugee who fled to Darwin in 1975.

Its demise does not spell the end for flights between Australia and East Timor.

Another carrier continues to fly between Darwin and Dili eight times a week.

Source: www.abc.net.au

East Timor plans tandem port projects

Port Strategy


10 May 2012

Double whammy for port projects in East Timor

East Timor is planning two new ports to help ease congestion at the capital, Dili, with both the north and south coasts set to benefit from the ambitious development plan.

The Southeast Asian country will use its oil revenues to establish new sea ports at Tibar on the north coast and Suai on the south coast.

Tibar which is described as "a national priority for the development of our nation" by Timor's Stratgegic Development Plan, will be a multi-purpose port with a capacity of 1m tonnes/per year and will cater for commercial cargo and passengers.

Suai will be a logistics base for the oil and gas sector with the new port being its centrepiece.

"It will be a multi-purpose seaport and include a container park, warehouse logistics area and fuel storage facilities. The port may also provide shipbuilding and repair facilities," said the Strategic Development Plan

Consolidating Democracy in Timor Leste

Damien Kingsbury

As Timor-Leste moves towards marking the 10th anniversary of its independence and completing the third round of its national elections, the question arises as to whether it has consolidated its democracy. The assumption is that consolidating democracy is a necessary step towards ending internal conflict and regularising the affairs of the state. But, the second question is, when one talks about consolidating democracy, what they mean by the term?

Having three sets of elections at regular intervals is certainly a good sign of democratic consolidation in Timor-Leste. Yet elections alone do not comprise democracy. Indonesia had regular elections between 1977 and 1997 under its New Order government, yet it was very far from being a democratic state at that time. It is not enough to have the formal procedure of democracy; one also requires the substance, if the term is to have meaning.

In simple terms, the substance of democracy is when the government not only represents the free choice of the majority of voters but also acts in the interests of all citizens, basing its policies on the choice of the majority but not to the exclusion of a minority. To ensure this, the government should be accountable to the citizens of the state, through the already noted regular elections, an independent electoral body, a separate and independent judiciary and other balancing institutions such as an ombudsman or anti-corruption commission, and responsive state agencies.

Timor-Leste scores well on the institutional scale, having both a National Electoral Commission and a Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration (even if the two do sometimes compete with each other) and a strongly developing Anti-Corruption Commission. Even Timor-Leste’s judiciary is beginning to develop well, if having had a slow start and still struggling with the country’s multiplicity of languages.

It is a truism that justice is delivered in a language that cannot be directly understood then it is, in effect, unavailable. The issue of language remains vexed for the country, in a range of ways. Having the judicial process conducted in a language that a small minority of the population can understand, much less its legal complexity, militates against access to the judicial process.

So, too, the access to justice in the districts is limited, particularly outside district capitals, and the back-log of cases remains significant. But from having a limited previous existence and a design primarily intended to promote control and compliance rather than justice, the rule of law in Timor-Leste has made great strides in a relatively short period of time. 

The judiciary also remains able to advise the President on constitutional questions and otherwise acts as a disincentive to illegal or corrupt behavior.

The extent to which Timor-Leste’s state agencies are responsive varies, ranging from the slow and inadequate to the quick and competent. Perhaps the point here, though, is that each are being pushed to work harder, faster and better, to be more responsive and more accountable. Such a shift in institutional cultural does not, however, come quickly. This, then, requires executive ministers who are prepared to require consistent standards of their employees and who are not subject to the pressures of family or friends.

Most importantly, however, for real political consolidation, is the sense that voters know that they have the power to endorse or reject political candidates at the ballot box. The change of government through the 2007 elections most ably demonstrated this capacity. The 2012 elections look set to more subtly change the political landscape. Taur Matan Ruak may have been Xanana Gusmao’s preferred candidate for President, but that the incumbent, Jose Ramos-Horta, did not have a stranglehold on the position spoke volumes for the ability of voters to make and accept political change. At least as importantly, the grace and dignity with which Ramos-Horta accepted this change and handed over authority said much for the type of political society Timor-Leste was becoming.

But perhaps most importantly, what are referred to as the ‘informal rules’ of democratic processes shape and locate democratic consolidation. In this, the idea of sharing a democratic space with others equally and fairly to overall mutual benefit consolidates the meaning of democracy in the minds of the state’s citizens.

In its original connotation, this idea of informal democratic rules’ differentiated between citizens who were not aware or only partially aware of the function of the political system, and those who were more fully aware of the roles of the executive, the administration and the judiciary.

This implies an internalising of the ‘rules’ of political processes, so they become acculturated or ‘second nature’ to their participants. That is, there is a general expectation about the rights and obligations of each of the political actors, including the voters, which works as a harmonious whole.

In this sense, Timor-Leste is still in transition, as voter knowledge of political processes has begun to take hold but could not yet be said to be embedded. Moreover, Timor-Leste’s citizens are still internalising ideas of free and equal political participation, of winning and losing with calm and equanimity, and of the idea that politics is the mechanism by which a society as a whole speaks to itself and makes internally acceptable decisions.

Having said this, Timor-Leste does not come from a long democratic tradition, as do other societies in which there is a stronger sense of such processes. And even where there is such a democratic tradition, voter knowledge and understanding of political processes is often only rudimentary and, if different ways to Timor-Leste, quite tribalised.

Perhaps, though, the saving grace of Timor-Leste’s political process is the way in which their involvement in it has been embraced by its citizens, as an important and meaningful community decision-making ritual. Timor-Leste’s voters have clear political favorites and, in some cases, an equally clear view about who they do not want to lead them.

Individually, none can determine who is and who is not in government. But by registering to vote and then voting, often in difficult and challenging circumstances, and by making a social occasion of the process, the people of Timor-Leste have moved quickly from an authoritarian, unrepresentative form of government to one which, if it is not always as successful as voters would like, is much more responsive to their needs and aware of their ability to endorse or dispose of them at electoral will.

No political society is perfect and democratic consolidation can only exist in relative terms. But in Timor-Leste, democracy has become increasingly consolidated and, if the process continues, will stand as a shining example to others with much longer, less challenging and more generous democratic traditions.

Professor Damien Kingsbury

Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights

Faculty of Arts and Education

Deakin University, Melbourne

+61(0)439638834

http://thediliweekly.com/en/editorial/editorial-corner/1297

Police arrest 84 in Timor Leste May Day protest

The Channel News Asia


 
DILI: Police in Timor Leste's capital city Dili fired warning shots and arrested 84 people to disperse some 500 May Day protesters calling for higher wages on Tuesday, police and a witness said.

Police said they were forced to intervene after protesters began hurling stones and marching to a nearby hotel where some staff had recently been laid off.

Three policemen and a private security guard were injured, police said.

"It was an illegal demonstration because by law any demonstration needs permission four days in advance," said Dili District Police Commander Pedro Belo.

"When we tried to explain they didn't want to listen and threw stones at the police and our vehicles. We've arrested 84 people -- nine females and the rest males," he said.

"Three policemen and one private security guard were injured. Two vehicles were damaged and seven windows broken," he added.

A witness said the protesters were calling for higher wages.

The half-island nation of 1.1 million, which this month celebrates a decade of formal independence from Indonesia, ranks as one of the world's poorest countries.

It is labelled by the International Monetary Fund as the "most oil-dependent economy in the world", relying on a petroleum fund that reached US$10 billion this year.

- AFP/wm

The Presidential Poll and the plans of Dr. Jose Ramos Horta

The Asia Pacific Analysis

The people have decided.

Timor-Leste will have a new President inaugurated on the 20^th of May, President Taur Matan Ruak.

Now, as the Parliamentary election approaches, there is much speculation as to what the people will say come July 7. The clear margin in the Presidential runoff separating TMR (61.23%) and Fretilin candidate Lu-Olo (38.77%) has some predicting a battle ahead for Fretilin to maintain their current 21 seats in the 65-seat National Parliament. Party expectations were rocked when some areas considered Fretilin strongholds underperformed in the runoff with only two of the thirteen districts seeing the vote for candidate Lu-Olo pass 50%, namely Baucau 52.07% and Viqueque 66.08%.

Questions have been raised as to whether Fretilin risks being seen as a party of the past.

It must be said with over 60% of the population under 25 years of age and a huge cohort of voters coming onto the electoral role in the next five years this perception is now a critical issue to be faced by all parties including CNRT. Other questions remain about the popularity of current Fretilin leadership and the success of the five-year strategy of denying the legitimacy of the AMP Government whilst offering little in the way of alternative policy or vision.

Regardless, although these results may have been a wake up call for the Fretilin leadership, it must also be noted that the Parliamentary election presents a very different scenario.

In 2007 14 parties contested and of these there were seven who secured seats. Four achieved the most significant share:

Fretilin with 29% of the vote were allocated 21 seats

CNRT with 24.1% of the vote were allocated 18 seats

ASDT PSD with 15.7% of the vote were allocated 11 seats and

PD with 11.3% of the vote allocated 8 seats.

With the constitution requiring any party to have over 50% of the vote to secure a Parliamentary majority, CNRT established a coalition with the ASDT, PSD, PD and UNDERTIM parties to form the Alliance of the Parliamentary Majority (AMP).

Five years on as the mandate of the AMP coalition Government draws to a close what is to come this time around?

There seems consensus that AMP government has made some progress, but the expectations of many of the Timorese people will not have been met whilst poor infrastructure and widespread poverty remain.

The people will decide.

Besides the leaders of political parties it is expected that other key figures will have a role to play in the weeks leading up to the Parliamentary poll.

Last weekend in an article published in The Age entitled Scarred leader seeks healing role, Australian journalist Lindsay Murdoch reported that outgoing President His Excellency Dr. Jose Ramos Horta “plans to remain in East Timor for at least two years to lead efforts to unite the country by pressing for Fretilin, the largest of the country's political parties, to be included in a ruling coalition”. He quotes the President as saying “Fretilin, which won the most votes at the last election in 2007 but was unable to form government, must be part of any new administration formed after general elections in July.”

The President who has been a life long advocate and champion of the people of Timor-Leste, understandably disappointed by his electoral defeat, is clearly intent on involving himself in the political process. Although Taur Matan Ruak is widely respected, his endorsement by Prime Minister Gusmão was regarded as sealing the exit of Horta from the 2012 Presidential race.

Five weeks ago, just after the first poll, Dr. Ramos Horta gave a press conference with Democratic Party (PD) leader Fernando 'Lasama' de Araujo. Seated together on the 21^st of March at the Hotel Timor in Dili, they made statements which provided the basis of a report by Australian reporter Michael Bachelard who in The Age newspaper wrote:

Dr Ramos-Horta said yesterday that the election demonstrated that he had many supporters. He wanted to join the Democratic Party to help it win the parliamentary election and set up the new government.

"I must work together with them [Democratic Party],'' Dr Ramos-Horta said. He wanted ''a good political configuration [for] the future of the country". He said the Democratic Party was a party of the future because its supporters were mostly young people. Mr Lasama said a coalition between his party and Dr Ramos-Horta would be strong. "Big brother Ramos-Horta will go with his younger brothers [in the Democratic Party] to prepare to meet the parliamentary election and the formation of a … constitutional Government of the Republic Democratic of Timor-Leste," he said.

So here we have two accounts which indicate that the President is committed to unseat Gusmão by promoting an alliance of PD and Fretilin.

Considering the results of the Presidential election and the widespread popularity of Xanana Gusmão as a national figure, PD may want to consider such liaisons with caution.

Although it would be naïve of any journalist in the path to the upcoming election to not look beyond the rhetoric of consummate political strategists such as Ramos Horta – Murdoch seems to do so. His article concludes:

Ramos-Horta leaves office at midnight on May 19, the night of East Timor's independence celebrations. He said he will not miss the trappings of office and has no wish to enter party politics. ''There is life after being president … unfortunately people like me are much needed in the country,'' he said.

The fact is that Ramos Horta, an ex-journalist himself, is deeply involved in national politics and along with all the other major political players in Timor-Leste will be working intensely before and after the election to determine the power structure of the nation.