The Presidential Poll and the plans of Dr. Jose Ramos Horta

The Asia Pacific Analysis

The people have decided.

Timor-Leste will have a new President inaugurated on the 20^th of May, President Taur Matan Ruak.

Now, as the Parliamentary election approaches, there is much speculation as to what the people will say come July 7. The clear margin in the Presidential runoff separating TMR (61.23%) and Fretilin candidate Lu-Olo (38.77%) has some predicting a battle ahead for Fretilin to maintain their current 21 seats in the 65-seat National Parliament. Party expectations were rocked when some areas considered Fretilin strongholds underperformed in the runoff with only two of the thirteen districts seeing the vote for candidate Lu-Olo pass 50%, namely Baucau 52.07% and Viqueque 66.08%.

Questions have been raised as to whether Fretilin risks being seen as a party of the past.

It must be said with over 60% of the population under 25 years of age and a huge cohort of voters coming onto the electoral role in the next five years this perception is now a critical issue to be faced by all parties including CNRT. Other questions remain about the popularity of current Fretilin leadership and the success of the five-year strategy of denying the legitimacy of the AMP Government whilst offering little in the way of alternative policy or vision.

Regardless, although these results may have been a wake up call for the Fretilin leadership, it must also be noted that the Parliamentary election presents a very different scenario.

In 2007 14 parties contested and of these there were seven who secured seats. Four achieved the most significant share:

Fretilin with 29% of the vote were allocated 21 seats

CNRT with 24.1% of the vote were allocated 18 seats

ASDT PSD with 15.7% of the vote were allocated 11 seats and

PD with 11.3% of the vote allocated 8 seats.

With the constitution requiring any party to have over 50% of the vote to secure a Parliamentary majority, CNRT established a coalition with the ASDT, PSD, PD and UNDERTIM parties to form the Alliance of the Parliamentary Majority (AMP).

Five years on as the mandate of the AMP coalition Government draws to a close what is to come this time around?

There seems consensus that AMP government has made some progress, but the expectations of many of the Timorese people will not have been met whilst poor infrastructure and widespread poverty remain.

The people will decide.

Besides the leaders of political parties it is expected that other key figures will have a role to play in the weeks leading up to the Parliamentary poll.

Last weekend in an article published in The Age entitled Scarred leader seeks healing role, Australian journalist Lindsay Murdoch reported that outgoing President His Excellency Dr. Jose Ramos Horta “plans to remain in East Timor for at least two years to lead efforts to unite the country by pressing for Fretilin, the largest of the country's political parties, to be included in a ruling coalition”. He quotes the President as saying “Fretilin, which won the most votes at the last election in 2007 but was unable to form government, must be part of any new administration formed after general elections in July.”

The President who has been a life long advocate and champion of the people of Timor-Leste, understandably disappointed by his electoral defeat, is clearly intent on involving himself in the political process. Although Taur Matan Ruak is widely respected, his endorsement by Prime Minister Gusmão was regarded as sealing the exit of Horta from the 2012 Presidential race.

Five weeks ago, just after the first poll, Dr. Ramos Horta gave a press conference with Democratic Party (PD) leader Fernando 'Lasama' de Araujo. Seated together on the 21^st of March at the Hotel Timor in Dili, they made statements which provided the basis of a report by Australian reporter Michael Bachelard who in The Age newspaper wrote:

Dr Ramos-Horta said yesterday that the election demonstrated that he had many supporters. He wanted to join the Democratic Party to help it win the parliamentary election and set up the new government.

"I must work together with them [Democratic Party],'' Dr Ramos-Horta said. He wanted ''a good political configuration [for] the future of the country". He said the Democratic Party was a party of the future because its supporters were mostly young people. Mr Lasama said a coalition between his party and Dr Ramos-Horta would be strong. "Big brother Ramos-Horta will go with his younger brothers [in the Democratic Party] to prepare to meet the parliamentary election and the formation of a … constitutional Government of the Republic Democratic of Timor-Leste," he said.

So here we have two accounts which indicate that the President is committed to unseat Gusmão by promoting an alliance of PD and Fretilin.

Considering the results of the Presidential election and the widespread popularity of Xanana Gusmão as a national figure, PD may want to consider such liaisons with caution.

Although it would be naïve of any journalist in the path to the upcoming election to not look beyond the rhetoric of consummate political strategists such as Ramos Horta – Murdoch seems to do so. His article concludes:

Ramos-Horta leaves office at midnight on May 19, the night of East Timor's independence celebrations. He said he will not miss the trappings of office and has no wish to enter party politics. ''There is life after being president … unfortunately people like me are much needed in the country,'' he said.

The fact is that Ramos Horta, an ex-journalist himself, is deeply involved in national politics and along with all the other major political players in Timor-Leste will be working intensely before and after the election to determine the power structure of the nation.